tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5442825777886761537.post2503373285784551771..comments2023-04-27T11:21:20.431+02:00Comments on stickman's corral: Food prices and climate change (gasp!)Grant McDermotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11868318397832070394noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5442825777886761537.post-36236405092673770772011-02-10T01:04:48.274+01:002011-02-10T01:04:48.274+01:00Just in case anyone is wondering: Yes, I am aware ...Just in case anyone is wondering: Yes, I am aware that the IPCC predicts that global food production has the potential (on balance) to increase with moderate increases in temperature (< 3°C), though decrease thereafter. I think Krugman's point, however, was to highlight short-term disturbances and extreme events such as the Russian heat wave.<br /><br />Going back to the IPCC projection, I have two quick comments on indulging an overly Cornucopian view:<br /><br />1) It's important to consider the distributional inequalities in agricultural output (e.g. Parts of the US stand to benefit handsomely, while Africa is a big loser).<br /><br />2) The impact of extreme weather events was specifically highlighted as an area where current research is poor. I imagine that this will be an area of focus for the AR5, which is scheduled for release in 2014.<br /><br />Further reading:<br />- http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter5.pdf<br />- http://www.climatechange-foodsecurity.org/ipcc.html<br />- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_and_agriculture#ProjectionsGrant McDermotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11868318397832070394noreply@blogger.com