Manufactured controversy and the "hockey stick": A football analogy

Even if you're only vaguely aware of the climate change debate, then you will probably have heard of the "hockey stick". You know, this bad boy:

Source: Mann et al. (1999).

This famous depiction of global temperatures going back into time has generated a lot of controversy. It doesn't seem to matter much to sceptics that the initial hockey stick(s) -- i.e. those produced by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998, 1999) -- have since been replicated by multiple studies using different lines of evidence and computational procedures. No, we are invariably told that the hockey stick is a fraud and has been debunked by the likes of Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick.

The problem with these debates is that they are necessarily technical and involve concepts that are very unfamiliar to most people. Whenever I tried to explain things to my friends and family, I could see their eyes glazing over as soon as I mentioned the words "principal component analysis". So here is a sports analogy that captures the essence of what critics like McIntyre and McKitrick got wrong.

Too good not to share

File this under the "Unintended hilarity" section. 

Via Ryan Coetzee, I see that South Africa's beloved Minister of Sport and Recreation, Mr Fikile April Mbalula, MP, has written what can only be described as the most exquisitely verbose press release of the year.

It seems a crime not to reproduce the statement in full, but I'll just give you the first third as a taster. Before doing so, however, some additional context is that the national football side (Bafana Bafana) has just recorded it's first victory in African Cup of Nations. Not only that, but in doing so the team scored its first goals in about four games.

Statement By the Minister of Sport and Recreation South Africa, Mr Fikile April Mbalula, MP, On the Occasion of the Media Conference to Congratulate Bafana Bafana: 

We stand here this morning as a proud and confident nation imbued by the resounding thrashing, walloping and gregarious defeat of the Angolan national football Team in Ethekwini by the our astonishing and call-heading warriors Bafana- Bafana, the crown jewel of the nation of the most popular sport in our country and the world over. 

Like true warriors and combat ready soldiers, our national Team turned the misfortune of being denied goals in the warm up matches and first game versus Cape Verde [Population 500,585 - Ed.] into a promising and pending festival of goals during our last game against Angola. You the people of South Africa headed the clarion call: 

To support our Team in the spirit and dictum of Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela (Seaparankwe) our national hero and international icon when he said that leaders and winners show the stripes of their true colours not in conditions of easiness but it is through difficult circumstances that a real leader emerges and survive. As we have come to know and acknowledge that social condition throw up concrete circumstance from which leaders emerge and chart a new a path into the future. 

To this day we know that the nation was disappointed and dismayed that Bafana Bafana were not resolute and determined in our quest for excellence and for quality and thus succumbing to foreign tendencies of negative media reporting and being bullied on the social networks. Not that they were not patriotic, but, it was a sign of not accepting the fact that in sport there is lose, draw or win. But your characteristic of a leap of hope and faith in our national team and never die spirit gave rise to our deep understanding and personification of the adverb that - "birds of the same feather flock together" and which propelled our Team to the 2 - 0 victory in our last game against Angola. 

After all you remain a constant reminder to the national Team never to abandon a sport code that is an oasis of hope, livelihood and symbol of nationhood to us and billions of people around the globe. 

To this extent your wish and hope that Bafana Bafana must win came through two days ago and for the reason that prompted Chief Albert Luthuli to pronounce at his life time and age that the Tempo is quickening- Asijiki, Siyaya phambili.!!! The Cup will be hoisted aloft by President Jacob Zuma and will be delivered to our people as a symbol and meaningful contribution to the quest for peace and unity of purpose amongst Africans here at home and in the Diaspora.

I score that an 11 out of ten for enthusiasm. I am also very pleased that, like an good ANC cadre, our dear minister does pass up on the chance to make reference to Nelson Mandela. Genuinely loved and admired as he is, I'm sure even Madiba would be bemused by the never-ending appeals to his authority (and the tenuous circumstances that these usually involve).

As a final aside, I've little doubt that Mr Mabula's dictionary was in flames by the time he finished composing his statement. But... "gregarious defeat"? In the spirit of Inigo Montoya:

Starting a new blog...

A group of us at my university have decided to start a blog dedicated to tackling environmental issues from an economic perspective. Things are still very much in the development phase, but we've managed to get the basic structure up and have also decided on a cunning name: The REConomics Hub... as in Resource Energy Climate Economics. (Take that Freakonomics!)

The ultimate goal is to showcase the research that we are doing, as well as fill the gap in providing dedicated economic-based commentary on issues like climate change, energy use, resource depletion, etc, etc. I hope that some of the things I've written about here at Stickman's Corral will give you a flavour of things to come, though this will obviously be improved by the additional coverage and the possibility for divergent opinions.

Now, the site isn't "live" yet because we've still got a lot of things to sort out. However, we have written one or two test posts to give an idea of the format, etc... And I link to them here as a special treat to you with love from the Corral! Here is one written by my friend Patrick the compares solar PV to other energy sources. And here is one by yours truly[*] that looks at whether the concept of self-reporting in environmental economics has any relevance for drug cheats in sports. A snippet:

There are many parallels between the world of sport and environmental economics. In this case, you are dealing with “bad” behaviour that some regulatory authority is trying to eradicate (or at least discourage) through punishment. Compare the doping agency with, say, a fisheries ministry that wants to ensure that each boat sticks to its “quota”… You are effectively faced with the same problems of imperfect information and limited enforcement abilities. You don’t have the resources to check all the boats (or athletes) and, even if you did, there’s a chance that you wouldn’t find the illegal catch (or substances). 

To help overcome these issues, one concept that has become popular in the field of environmental regulation is self-reporting. To continue with our fisheries example, boats would have the option of reporting a catch in excess of their quota — provided they are subjected to a reduced fine as a reward for their honesty. The main idea here is that self-reporting allows the regulator to focus its scarce resources on agents (i.e. boats) that don’t self-report and thereby increase overall compliance rates within the industry…. And, indeed, this is what the literature suggests will actually happen.

If you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know.

___

[*] At this stage, I'm inclined to think that my identity is a very poorly guarded secret anyway. As such, you can follow me here on Twitter if you are so inclined...

Quick links (05/05/2012)

I'm about to go into a pre-exam blogging hibernation, but here are some links to keep you interested:

1) Ed Dolan gives a nice overview of the economic issues surrounding fracking and the environment. Summary: "As an economist, I see something still different [to fracking critics or industry supporters]: a familiar pattern of negative externalities and missing market signals, to which the appropriate response is unlikely to be either prohibition or laissez-faire."

2) Economic blog comment of the week goes to this guy: "This was not Netanyahu at the UN."

3) Bryan Caplan draws inspiration from Game of Thrones in writing up The Bettor's Oath (a la the Brothers of the Night's Watch).

4) Turning to sport, I enjoyed this column by David Moseley on the farce that Super Rugby has become. More specifically, the laughable tournament format cooked up by the SANZAR brains trust (a concept that needs to be employed in the loosest possible sense).

5) Ever wondered where or how bands got their names? Here's a list that's worth going through. Lots of cultural homage and sexual innuendo, as you'd expect. Some of the more interesting/unexpected ones for me were Procol Harem, Pulp, Spandau Ballet, and The Replacements. Speaking of which...

And that, ladies and gents, is what we call a stone cold classic.

6) UPDATE: Forgot to mention that I've signed this petition on GMO research. You should too, and show your support for science against mind-numbing Luddite prejudices.

Support NZ for the World Cup... It's the right thing to do

So, South Africa bow out of the Rugby World Cup in a most frustrating and even inexplicable way. Yes, there is is justified cause for anger at the incompetence of Bryce Lawrence (which, let's be honest, was already something of a celebrated topic). However, the Springboks's failure to land the killer blow, despite complete dominance across nearly all facets of play, says as much about their own limitations as an attacking side, as it does about the sheer bloody-mindedness of Australia's fantastic defence or the curious ineptitude of Mr Lawrence.

Joining South Africa on their own flights home are the likes of England, Ireland, Scotland and Argentina. Post-mortems are already underway, but still to be decided is the little matter of who will actually win this damn thing. For neutral supporters, the next question that arises is: To which nation should we pledge our support for the remaining semi-final and the final encounters?

The first semi is a Henman if ever there was one. (In its original, literal form that is... 10 weeks ago I don't think anyone would have predicted these two contestants.) Thus, a vastly improved Welsh side, brimming with self-belief will take on the ever-mercurial French... who appear to have taken a leaf out of their national football counterparts' book by staging a player revolt mid-World Cup campaign. The only difference is that the French rugby side have managed to salvage at least one famous victory and now somehow find themselves in the last four, while Raymond Domenech's (former?) men imploded in rather spectacular fashion and were out by the group stages. Viva la Revolution, liberté, égalité, fraternité and all that, but I'm backing the Welsh for this one. I'll be happy to reward professionalism and structure over maddening inconsistency any day.

Did they even have colour photos back then?

In the second play-off, hosts New Zealand seek to finally recapture the title that has eluded them since they won the inaugural tournament in 1987.  They've been dealt a potentially devastating blow through the loss of key playmaker, Dan Carter, while captain Richie McCaw appears to be playing on one leg. However, fate may have handed them some strange recompense through the injury of back-up flyhalf, Colin Slade. Odd as this may sound, the latter's replacement, young Aaron Cruden, would seem a much safer bet than the woefully out-of-his-depth Slade. Harsh, but fair I'm afraid. Facing New Zealand, of course, is the same Australian side that bundled South Africa out during this weekend's quarter-final. Aus have some outstanding young talent of their own, not least the players that featured most prominently in the victory against SA: David Pocock, James O'Connor and skipper James Horwill. However, they are thin on depth if injury does strike and there remain big doubts about their set-piece, and the BMT of flyhalf Quade Cooper among other things. It's a big call, but I'm still backing New Zealand for the win that will see them through to play Wales in the grand finale.

And the final itself? Well, you'd have to pick New Zealand again wouldn't you?

Okay, I hear you asking, but do you want them to win? So, with a very clear conscience, allow me to answer: "Yes".

As much as anything, I've grown tired of the ongoing tragi-comedy that sees that the planet's consistently best team dumped out of the World Cup. Bloomsboy put it rather poignantly: "Watching the spectacle of another France-NZ upset in the final would be a bit like succumbing to the morbid fascination of the World Trade Centers falling." A rugby fan first and foremost, I feel no shame in saying that the Kiwis have played most of the very top stuff I have ever watched. If there was such a thing as cosmic rugby justice, New Zealand should win this thing.

But forget speculative pleas to the rugby gods. Anyone who can tell me that Mrs. Karma cares for the game of rugby when the likes of Ben Cohen and Justin Harrison have World Cup winner medals, but Christian Cullen doesn't, is an idiot or a liar. Quite possibly both.

No, much more than balancing the scales of sporting justice, I hope that New Zealand winning the World Cup would finally put an end to the inane excuses that other rugby nations -- and South Africa in particular -- have become comfortable with in shrugging off mediocre results. Another year without a Tri-Nations trophy? ("Ja, but at least we can win a World Cup, hey!") Thirty-three percent average against our arch-rivals since 1995? ("Two World Cup trophies, boet!")

Suitably lame explanations for lame results.

It may provide comfort to opposition supporters, but New Zealand's failure to win a World Cup has actually become an albatross around the neck of other rugby nations. For, as long as the ABs can't get their hands on the Web Ellis trophy, we can dupe ourselves into thinking that we're actually doing pretty well... when we actually aren't.

With some important exceptions, New Zealand have clearly set the standard in modern rugby terms. I certainly believe that South Africa (and maybe even a few other nations) could overtake them, but not while the four-year mindset persists. Until the Kiwis bury their World Cup hatchet, a misplaced superiority complex will simply be doing us more harm in the long-run than good. Let order be restored and the slates be wiped clean. Because only then can we focus on consistently being the best rugby nation in world... full stop. Not just having a go every four years.

So... unless you happen to be Australian, Welsh or French... get behind the All Blacks for the Rugby World Cup 2011. Forget that they deserve it, we need it as much as they do.

Bryce Lawrence Reffing Flowchart

Like a kid on Christmas eve...

The Rugby World Cup 2011 starts tomorrow... BOOM!

Good times... GOOD times.

Will South Africa become the first team in the tournament's history to successfully defend the title? Is 2011 a few years too early for Australia's team of gifted youngsters? Can this New Zealand side finally put a 24-year hoodoo to rest on home soil? Most importantly, will Stickman's cable subscription hold out and provide the coverage he deserves needs to stay in touch with all the key games... despite his residing in a far-off land where the primitive locals are ignorant of the intricacies of the scrum, the savage beauty of the crash tackle, the deft touches required to put the inside man into space... and where combining the words "hooker" and "prop" in a sentence is likely to only invite accusations of sexual depravity? (Uncivilised boors!)

My tentative answers to the above questions are: 1) "I fear not"; 2) "probably"; 3) "well, they won't be staying on home soil otherwise";... and 4) "by God, I hope so!".[*]

Really, all other sports are just for laughs. This is what I'm talking about:

Comrades

In a few hours, the start to the 86th Comrades Marathon will sound off. This year is an "up run", as 18,000 runners of all race, creed and nationality set off from Durban, slowly tracing their way over 90-odd km of undulating hills until they reach the nearby city of Pietermaritzburg.

It seems an odd thing to write a post about a race that I have never run (even if an ultra). However, while I may be many thousand miles away from home, there are few things that strike me as more quintessentially South African -- in a good way -- than Comrades.

I can clearly remember being very young and waking up at what seemed an impossibly early hour, to tune in for the start of the race... Sharing in the nervous anticipation of the runners, a bundled mass in the morning dark, waiting for the ceremonial crow and gun shot that signals the start of every Comrades. I would sit transfixed for much of the day with the rest of my family as we watched the lead runners relentlessly beat down the 90km tarmac with superhuman stamina and speed to the finish line... To the absolute drama of a few hours later, as the cut-off shot was fired; the back of the designated official turned dispassionately away from the frantic last rush of stragglers. Would the man wobbling in a dangerous haze, blinded by exhaustion, stumble his way across the line in time? Had those runners, who still looked in good shape but were yet outside the stadium, mistimed their run by a crucial few minutes? And, perhaps most emotive of all, could those shouldering the weight of complete strangers out on their feet, find the strength for two people over the agonizing last few metres? Had they cost themselves a finisher's medal through their spirit of comraderie? In that case, did it matter?

I've run a good number of half marathons and a full in my time, but, as mentioned, Comrades is still on the to-do-list. Indeed, I sometimes feel a compulsion that I have to do it one day. (Well, provided that my knee comes right from its current state of persistent injury!) One of my favourite Comrades anecdotes, though, relates to someone that I met while travelling in Tanzania in 2008. The story may require a bit of background, but essentially I was in the middle of a Cairo to Cape trip at the time... Actually, it's probably best just to quote directly from the group email that I wrote back then:

[...] Something that you realise doing a trip like this, is that there is always someone just a little bit more hardcore than you. Niall [i.e. friend I was travelling with] and I met perhaps the most obvious such candidate on the stretch from Arusha to Iringa. 

Andy is a Scotsman who had come down solo from the UK, through Europe and the Middle East, and then on to the same Cairo-south route as ourselves. Seeing as we were cycling too, he was keen to join up for the company for a while. He mentioned that he was heading down to Durban. When I asked why he didn't "just" continue on through to Cape Town, he dropped the bombshell: He was cycling down to Durban to run the Comrades Ultramarathon...

Um. Come again? 

"Yes, this year I think I'll cycle 18,000km -- by myself -- and then celebrate by running a 90km ultra at the end." 

Every morning, he wakes up early, runs anything from one to three hours, and then gets on his bike for a regular 100km cycle. Madness. This, after Niall and I had been debating whether it was too taxing too do some press-ups before a day's cycle... 

Andy, we salute you!

[Note: I'm happy to report that Andy did manage to finish his race before the 12-hour cut-off time that year. This is all the more impressive for the fact that he found himself short on time to reach Durban once he hit Malawi. If I recall correctly, he had to do the last 2,500 km in under 20 days, which I can promise you is a big ask...]

What BMT looks like

Four straight birdies to close out The Masters.

Augusta Leaderboard 2011

Charl Schwartzel, take a bow (and collect your jacket). An unbelievably cool performance.

Perhaps you could share your secrets with the country's cricket team?

Quick links - History Repeats Itself edition

Some things that I've been meaning to write about, but short on time[*]...

1) A heavily fancied South Africa bombs out during the knock-out stages of the Cricket World Cup. As I wrote on facebook: "Wait. I've seen this movie before." Or, in the endearing words of Yogi Berra: "It's déjà vu all over again!" (In related news, the ever reliable Zapiro brokes little sympathy for the apologists.)

2) Speaking of déjà vu... South Africa's favourite electricity monopoly, Eishkom Eskom, has covered itself in glory yet again. This time, serving up "a comedy of errors" that ultimately resulted in a massive explosion at a key power plant. The end result: Expenses of R3bn ($440m) for the company - thanks tax payer! - and a "severely compromised" national electricity supply. Seriously, is there anyone left who believes that we can delay the move to a competitive power market any longer?

3) More promising news is that South Africa is finally set to hike water rates in a bid to secure desperately needed investment for ageing infrastructure. A.F.T, as far as I am concerned. If you don't charge people rates commensurable to the cost of supplying water, sooner or later you won't be able to supply anyone at all. Or, as I commented: "To speak some 'economese', we need to charge water rates equivalent to the long-run marginal costs of providing it." You can see some of my (brief) previous thoughts on water pricing here and here.

4) I'm less optimistic about the Chinese command-and-control approach to water management, as officials announced plans to reduce water use per unit of GDP by 7%. I share the sentiments of many in thinking that water will ultimately prove the defining barrier for China's continued growth explosion, which has thus far come at a very large environmental and health cost. That the government has pledged a 30% reduction in water consumption (per unit of GDP) over the next five years is a start. Like any good economist, however, I maintain that they'll have to get prices involved if they want to make real improvements in water conservation over the long-term. (Having said that, and while I much prefer the market mechanism, the Chinese have been successful in their stated aims of reducing energy intensity thus far... moderate as these may be in reality.)

5) And now, for something completely different:



Alan! Alan! Alan!... Al! Alan!

I also enjoyed this:

"What was the answer?"
"Spatula. They're just making them up now."

[*] That, coupled with the fact that I was somewhat overzealous at both the gym and (later) the bar over the weekend. I can still barely straighten my arms. Walking around like a hungover T-Rex. 

Torres on football clubs: "Romance is dead"

[HAPPY UPDATE: Well, well, well... What do you know? Perhaps romance isn't dead! Headline this morning: Torres endures nightmare debut as Liverpool regain old swagger. As John said to Paul:

]

I'm a rugby man first and foremost, but have certainly grown into my football fandom over the last few years... especially after spending time in England and other parts of Europe. You cannot help but get up to speed on your weekend football results and banter if you properly want to integrate into a London, Oslo, or Lisbon. (On that note, I'm always struck by how much of leveller sport is around the office, which is one of the great things about it. I've seen canteen staff vigorously debating top management types on something as mundane as an offside play from the weekend more times than I care to remember...)

And, of course, the World Cup in South Africa was, to use the local vernacular, ama-ZING. I only went to one stadium game*, but was right in the heart of the action for most of the tournament. The fanwalk area around Cape Town Stadium was always epic, as was the general vibe in the whole country at the time. I'm really stoked that I got the chance to go back for that.

Anyway, what I'm getting to here is an article from The Independent on a Fernando Torres press conference, following his much-discussed (read: highly controversial) transfer from Liverpool to Chelsea. I should add that Liverpool happen to be, unfortunately, my club of choice and this has been a tough gig the last few seasons. Torres was, for the most part, the highpoint for any Liverpool supporter during this period:

Romance is dead, says £50m Torres

Fernando Torres dismissed accusations of disloyalty over his controversial move from Liverpool to Chelsea yesterday by declaring that "romance is dead" in football when it comes to players sticking with their clubs and said he did not have the time to wait for Liverpool to rebuild.

In a frank and revealing press briefing, Torres said that he simply ran out of patience with Liverpool and feared that he would miss out on collecting the domestic trophies that so many of his Spain World Cup-winning team-mates have. He denied the allegations of hypocrisy over his previous protestations of loyalty to Liverpool by claiming that the only club he really loved was his childhood side, Atletico Madrid.

[snip]

With the likelihood that he will start, Torres said that he would not celebrate if he scored against his former side but that was the only concession to sentimentality he made. He disagreed with accusations that he was a traitor, saying that he had given Liverpool three and a half good seasons as well as generating the club a major profit.

Torres said: "I see some players doing that [kissing the badge] when they join a club, but the romance in football has gone. It's a different thing now. People [players] are coming and leaving. When you are joining a club you want to do the best for yourself and that club, and that's all. Some people like to kiss the badge. They can do it. I only want to score goals and do my job, and achieve all the targets the team has.

"I took the decision to leave Liverpool because I heard about Chelsea's interest. They were pushing hard, which means they really wanted me. I really wanted to leave Liverpool, so I told them straight. Everything was clear. At the end of the day, it's about being fair and honest with everyone."

I have to agree with him. For all the talk about loyalty, professional sport is a completely different animal from days gone by. Liverpool ceded the moral high ground some time ago when they embraced the same foreign-owner, foreign-player, high stakes financial game as everyone else. I'm not saying they could have avoided it - indeed, that's largely my point and if those are the rules of the road, you best stick to them. This post isn't meant to be a glowing review of the way Roman Ambramovich runs Chelsea (far from it), but football has made its own bed and now it's time to sleep in it.**

The top players expect to be surrounded by peers and management of similar calibre. If Liverpool couldn't provide that to a guy like Torres (indeed, they dismissed some of their best players in the last two seasons), what rights do they think they have in playing the loyalty card?

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: The surest way to get someone to act like clown is to start treating them like they're in circus. Those who don't buy into the show can - and probably will - leave.

* If you're interested, the game in question was France-Uruguay. The game itself was rubbish (a nil-nil draw), but it took place on the opening day directly after Bafana Bafana (the SA national side) played Mexico in the first game of the tournament in Johannesburg. I went with a few mates and, having already spent a good few hours in the pub, we were fairly steamrolled by the time of the Cape Town kick-off. Not only that, but for some reason we had decided to go as three gorillas and a banana... Okay, the reason being we wanted to boost our chances of media footage! It worked a charm though; here's a pic from the next day's paper that was taken of of us (alongside some girls supporting ze frogs) taken just prior to the game:

** Sometimes I truly think that the salary caps in rugby (in places such as England) are a good thing. It seems inevitable to me that football will blow up in ever-expanding bubble of unsustainable salaries and dangerously debt-financed clubs. In a related note, here is the ever-provocative Bill Maher on what "makes NFL football so great" (spoiler: "socialism"): Irritable Bowl Syndrome. If you can't watch the clip, here is a text version.

Currie Cup Final

After a great start to the 2010 season, South African rugby descended into disappointment and embarrassment. Still, there's light at the end of the tunnel as Western Province have the chance to end a decade of mediocrity tomorrow and reclaim their rightful place as Currie Cup champions!

So, if there are any rugby fans out there reading this... Do the right thing and support the blue and white hoops tomorrow around 17:30 local time (GMT +2 hours). Come on!

Proooooovince!

UPDATE: Fack.
Pardon moi French, but I'm a few Guinesses (Guini?) to the good. Well played Sharks... WP completely outgunned.

UPDATE 2: Back to my normal sober self and I see all and sundry are singing young Patrick Lambie's praises. Rightly so, after a stellar season and yesterday's m-o-t-m performance. Still, it wouldn't be the first time a 19/20-year old flyhalf has been fêted as the next big thing in South African rugby after dominating a Currie Cup final. Remember Derick Hougaard back in 2002/03? Brian "The Chiropractor" Lima does:

Thanks, Joost!

To be fair to Hougaard, he went on to have some very successful domestic campaigns with The Bulls. The problem is that he ultimately failed to deliver any performances worth mentioning for the national side...