Tuesday, March 20, 2012

International Energy Workshop in June

Sweet news.

I'll be presenting my paper on electricity prices and water scarcity at this year's International Energy Workshop, which will be held in...

Cape Town!

Come to Papa...

Great to know that I'll be heading home for a visit and even better to have my trip sponsored. GF will be coming too... provided the (slightly ridiculous) NOK3000 nightly accommodation allowance doesn't cause her to spontaneously combust with excitement.

The best thing about Norwegian prices?
They travel so well.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Why do we pay tax on plastic bags?

Because here's why:



Forget the environment. This flagrant disregard for personal space must end!

Climate mitigation as a secondary benefit

But keep it quiet.

I spent some time last week with the Dutch economist, Johannes Bollen, who was visiting my university to present his research on the "co-benefits" of climate and air pollution policies. His basic argument is that you can go a long way towards meeting (global) climate goals simply by tackling (local) air pollution. In fact, his most up-to-date model suggests that rigorously addressing air pollution -- finding the optimal balance between health improvements and increased energy costs -- will get us 75 percent of the way towards the "2°C target" of the Copenhagen Accord.

Those results bear repeating: No global carbon tax or binding international treaties required. Just individual countries focused on cleaning up their own air pollution and we have already solved three-quarters of the climate problem. It sounds too good to be true and, yet, there's a growing body of evidence that points towards similar conclusions.[*]

For instance, you might remember an AER paper by Muller et al. (2011) that I mentioned a few months back. Their study made a big splash because, among other things, it showed that the price of coal-fired electricity should be several times higher than it currently is, given the adverse effects that local air pollutants (small particulates, SO2, NOx) have on human health and productivity. Again, nothing to do with climate effects; just accounting for the local health damages caused by dirty air.

It almost goes without saying that this promises to be a very important research area. The climate change narrative -- despite many excellent scientists and economists producing meticulous research -- has become bogged down by its own press and politics. We're at such an impasse that I simply can't see the necessary political will (and public buy-in?) to move us forward in any meaningful way over the next decade.

Focusing on local pollution, however, allows us to abstract from the most problematic areas of climate change; whether that is the unjustified/misplaced skepticism about the underlying science, or the longer-term uncertainties that make cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation difficult. From a purely economic perspective, it also frees you from the inherent problems associated with a global commons; such as competing incentives, inter-temporal conflicts, lack of enforcement, and free-rider problems. Those kinds of issues are dramatically simplified when you move from the global scale to the national scale, and narrow your time horizon.

The thing is, and while it's obviously great to kill two birds with one stone, I actually think that we should be very careful about emphasizing the climate link. Rightly or wrongly, policy geared towards tackling climate change is an extremely touchy subject. Yes, it's absurd to think that there is some grand communist plot at hand whenever someone mentions "cap-and-trade" or "carbon tax". (Also ironic when you consider that accounting for environmental damages is about putting an end to the socialized benefits that polluters enjoy at the expense of everyone else.) However, we have to acknowledge and operate within the practical confines of our world... which, more often than not, means making allowances for the irrationalities, whims and idiocies of our fellow citizens. And, yes, I'm sure the feeling is mutual.

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: Tackling local air pollution will bring about marked improvements in human health and economic welfare, both now and in the future. We also have good reason to believe that it will go a long way towards mitigating climate problems. Unfortunately, climate change is a subject that comes with a lot of baggage. I'd prefer to see the results without bringing up the baggage.

UPDATE: The British Medical Journal gets in on the action here.

[*] I haven't scrutinized Johannes' model in enough detail to proclaim his results as gospel truth. That being said, seeing his presentation and having talked through the underlying methodology certainly makes me confident that he has carefully covered his bases. I'll try to keep tabs on how his working paper develops or is revised over the coming months.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Happy St Paddy's

I hope my Irish forebears would approve.



I make no apologies for this being my favourite version.


As I was going over the Cork and Kerry Mountains 
I saw Captain Farrell and his money he was countin' 
I first produced my pistol and then produced my rapier 
I said "Stand and deliver, or the devil he may take ya!" 

I took all of his money and it was a pretty penny 
I took all of his money and I brought it home to Molly 
She swore that she loved me, no never would she leave me 
But the devil take that woman, for you know she tricked me easy 

Musha rain dum-a-doo dum-a-da 
Whack for my daddy-o 
Whack for my daddy-o 
There's whiskey in the jar-o

Being drunk and weary I went to Molly's chamber 
Taking my Molly with me, but I never knew the danger 
For, about six or maybe seven, in walked Captain Farrell 
I jumped up, fired my pistols, and I shot him with both barrels

Musha rain dum-a-doo dum-a-da, ha, ya 
Whack for my daddy-o 
Whack for my daddy-o 
There's whiskey in the jar-o 

Now some men like a fishin', some men like the fowlin' 
Some men like to hear, to hear the cannonball a-roarin' 
But me, I like sleepin', `specially in my Molly's chamber 
But here I am in prison, here I am with a ball and chain!

Musha rain dum-a-doo dum-a-da, ha, ya 
Whack for my daddy-o 
Whack for my daddy-o 
There's whiskey in the jar-o 
Whiskey in the jar-o

Musha rain dum-a-doo dum-a-da 
Musha rain dum-a-doo dum-a-da, hey 
Musha rain dum-a-doo dum-a-da 
Musha rain dum-a-doo dum-a-da, ya

Friday, March 16, 2012

Chief EU science adviser on GMO

Scottish microbiologist Anne Glover is the recently appointed chief science adviser to the EU. The below excerpt concerning GMO is taken from an interview that she gave last month.

She makes three major points: (1) There is a fundamental need for a profit-driven agri-business, (2) Resistance to GMO is driven by emotion rather than any kind of scientific evidence, and (3) Anti-GMO lobby groups are partially to blame for the monopoly power that they so vehemently claim to oppose.
In terms of food security and safety – where do you stand on genetically modified products and what do you think of the EU’s rather dismissive stance to GM to date? 
“In my own area of science, molecular biology, I have used the GM technology for most of my research career and very helpful it has been in generating understanding about how biological and environmental systems work. So I know the power of the technology and the regulations we adopt in order to use it are very sensible and appropriate. I can also see that healthcare and our understanding of diseases has been revolutionised. There has been an unparalleled acceleration of our knowledge generation through the use of GM, which is a fantastic thing. 
“But people in Europe are anxious about the use of GM crops or animals and I have a concern about that because I don’t see the evidence base suggesting that there is substantial risk associated with it. Indeed, you could look at North America where they have been doing an experiment on our behalf for the last 15 years by growing and eating GM crops – and I don’t see over that period of time what negative impact it has had. There is a huge body of evidence, rightly so, looking at the risk of GM. People will ask me: ‘Is there no risk in eating GM crops?’ Well, of course, I would never say that as I am a scientist. What I would say is that whatever you eat for dinner this evening, there is a risk in eating that. There is risk associated with conventional agriculture, organic agriculture, any form of agriculture. 
“Agriculture has a big impact on our environment. The act of fertilising fields reduces the microbial diversity in the soil, but we don’t think that it has any long-term effects. We think it is something we need to do. There are implications for climate change and water spoilage issues so we need to do that with care. So around GM, let us examine the evidence. It doesn’t support the restricted activity in this area that we see. 
People may say that it is just big business that is making money out of this, but I can’t help thinking that is the job of big business. It is a capitalist system we work in – energy companies make money, transport companies make money. So do agricultural companies. I wish there was a better debate around GM, based on evidence and not emotion. And I wish we could look at risk versus reward. Some farmers say that if we introduce these particular types of GM seeds, then we are tied in to using particular chemicals to manage our crops. They don’t like that because they feel it is a monopoly to a particular company and they are uncomfortable about that.” 
But isn’t that part of the problem, these allegations that a small number of firms have a monopoly in the GM market? 
Possibly, the reason that [monopoly power] has happened is because of all the restrictions on GM. If I was running a small seed company, it is not an area I would be getting into because I couldn’t afford to do it. The lobbyists and pressure groups have almost been responsible for it by causing this withdrawal from evidence and this acceptance of the emotional argument. It really is not fair to use terms such as ‘Frankenstein foods’. We should be a bit more cautious in Europe here. By turning our backs on the evidence, there is a question over whether we are still going to be as competitive. We need to seriously look at GM crops when we tackle to the global problem of climate change and being able to feed the population of the world. It links into food security as well and we do need to think about that.”

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The face of Gabriel

Jonathan Haid's comments on the spiritual nature of warfare reminded me of a passage in Captain Correli's Mandolin by Louis de Bernières. The character Mandras is something of tragic figure in the book. A simple fisherman who finds himself transformed by the horrors of war and unable to relate to the loved ones that await his return:
Once, near the Metsovon pass, in December, when it was twenty degrees below zero because there was no cloud, the Italians sent up a starshell. It exploded in a cascade of brilliant blue light against the face of the full moon, and the sparks drifted to earth in slow motion like the souls of reluctant angels. As that small magnesium sun hovered and blazed, the black pines stepped out of their modest shadows as though previously they had been veiled like virgins but had now decided to be seen as they are in heaven. The drifts of snow pulsed with the incandescence of the absolute chastity of ice, a mortar coughed disconsolately, and an owl whooped. For the first time in my life I shivered physically from something other than the cold; the world had sloughed away its skin and revealed itself as energy and light. 
It is my wish to get well so that I can go back to the lines and experience, perhaps for only one more time, that immaculate moment when I saw the face of Gabriel in an instrument of war. 
Quite beautiful.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Great TED talk on the evolutionary basis for religion

..., spirituality and co-operation by the psychologist Jonathan Haidt. My economist self was particularly interested in his thoughts on free-riding. The rest of me was particularly interested in the discussion as a whole.



It's curious to reflect on the things that give meaning and purpose to our lives. On that note, I've often wondered whether the appeal of atheism would diminish if there were no believers to convince otherwise?

UPDATE: Haidt has just published a new book that is getting rave reviews.

Housekeeping

Some of you may have noticed that I've changed the previous post -- on Invisible Children and James Inhofe -- around a bit since it was first published. I wrote it up in quite a rush and, looking over it today, realised that my motivations were perhaps a bit cryptic. Hopefully it reads a bit better now.

Revisiting and tweaking old posts on this blog is an occasional habit of mine. I've never tried to change the fundamental meaning of any posts, or cover my tracks if someone calls me out in the comments. Rather, it's usually that I read something and think "Who wrote this terrible mess? Do they even speak English?" So, blame OCD, but I inevitably tend to think that I can improve my writing after it's already out there for the world to see.

This is frustrating because I'm a terribly slow blogger as it is, and coursework leaves very little time for anything else. I don't know how other people doing graduate studies manage to keep up regular blogging activity with the workload. I suspect that the answer will reflect unfavourably on my mental faculties, so probably best not dwell on that issue...

Sunday, March 11, 2012

The real reason to be wary of Kony 2012

With the internet abuzz about Invisible Children's "Kony 2012" viral campaign, it was predictable that there would be some blow-back from critics. The most compelling criticism from my perspective is that Kony 2012 offers an extremely simplified message that is largely disconnected from the problems that presently plague Uganda.

In its own small way, I believe that such issues are laid bare by IC's vocal endorsement from James Inhofe, the Oklahoma senator who features prominently in the viral video.[*] Call me crazy, but I don't think that someone who has campaigned on the discriminatory platform of "God, gays and guns" is particularly well suited to act as spokesman for Uganda's current problems... Which -- more than the unspeakable acts of the now exiled Joseph Kony -- include massive discrimination and violence perpetrated against gay people.

Non-partisan support is something that we should almost always strive for. However, I am troubled by the fact that IC have unquestionably accepted and advertised Inhofe's endorsement, even though he has a record of overt bigotry. I suggest that IC might want to think a little more critically about the signals that they are sending to the Ugandan people, given the country's struggles against rabid homophobia.

UPDATE: Well, it seems that the case against James Inhofe's moral leadership on Ugandan issues is even stronger than I first guessed. A group of evangelical US politicians and lobbyists -- Inhofe foremost among them -- have been documented as providing advice to David Bahati, and implicitly inspiring him to introduce Uganda's infamous anti-Homosexual Bill (aka "Kill the Gays Bill") that I linked to above. Disturbing stuff.

[*] I've previously discussed Inhofe here if you are interested. Notably, his demanding role as the US Senate's climate change denier-in-chief... a hotly contested title if ever there was one. (A sadly amusing postscript to that saga here.)

===

Disclaimer -- I wrote this post, and especially the title, with my tongue pressed angrily against my cheek. Joseph Kony undoubtedly deserves to face justice for his crimes. If this Kony 2012 campaign achieves nothing else, it's still good to know that millions of people around the world have now learnt who he is and understand the nature of his barbarism. Still, I think that this illustrates how simplified messages can distract from the real issues in development; a sadly recurring theme in field. For a nice, short summary, see Chris Blattman.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Cover Thursdays - James Morrison edition

When James Morrison first came on to the scene, I was distinctly of the "meh" opinion. His debut album Undiscovered was everywhere I looked and, for the life of me, I couldn't figure out why. On the mediocre side of average IMHO.

Bear in mind that a) I was living in London at the time, and b) the Brits have a singular ability to foster contempt among non-Brits for local artists and sportsmen as a result of their incessant patriotic promotion.[*]

That's not to say that this was bad period for me on the musical front. The music scene in London is pretty amazing and I was left almost frantic with the notion that I could see a superb live act every other night. (Coming from South Africa, this was like being on another planet...) The general Brit "sound" around that time was also pretty great, if I think back: The Fratellis, Editors, Bloc Party, Arctic Monkeys, Muse, Amy Winehouse, Kasabian, Kooks, Razorlight, etc etc

But not James Morrison, whom seemed to be empty pop masquerading as thoughtful troubadour... and he hasn't done much to grow on me since. Having said that, while I don't normally like the music he makes, I do recognize that Morrison has a pretty unique voice with some real soulful quality to it.[**] In other words, he's exactly the type of candidate that can produce a good cover.

I still have mixed feelings about including him here, among the -- coveted! -- ranks of Cover Thursdays alumni at Stickman's Corral. However, hopefully you'll enjoy these two tracks that I've selected for your listening pleasure this fine Thursday. Both are acoustic numbers that offer Morrison a platform to showcase his smokey pipes and perhaps win us naysayers over...

1) "Man In The Mirror", originally by a certain Michael Jackson:



2) "Gangster's Gangsta's Paradise", originally by two-hit wonder, Coolio:




Verdict?
Yes, no, maybe?

---
[*] Tennis being an obvious "beneficiary" of this counterproductive approach. Poor ol' Tim Henman never stood a chance (even if he had been born with a personality). Andy Murray was pretty much goosed from the get go as well (even if he hadn't been born with a cactus lodged in his colon).

[**] Full disclosure: I did quite enjoy his last single, "I won't let you go". This acoustic version is certainly impressive and, if the music doesn't grab you, then the facial expressions just might do it...